House Prices House Prices: Predictions For 2009

Comments

1. I don't believe a word of what Estate Agents say. When some of them pretend that house prices will not fall that much and that they will bounce back quickly, this is just "wishful thinking". People in the UK have been buying properties with cheap money borrowed from reckless bankers at a time where property prices were rising. Now that's over and the recession (not to say depression) is severe and the UK economy which was consumer driven through lavish spending from people living above their means. This is over now. I predict a fall in prices of 40% to 50% and also that the unwinding of the bust will be long and painful. From Ananda Valayden, Economist Paris Sorbonne, France

   Posted by Ananda on 17/12/2008 16:20:38

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2. I think one of the biggest factors is public sentiment and reading most of the comments it's pretty negative. This obviously is due to the current crisis and largely the media blowing everything out of proportion. The mortgages out there aren't as bad as they're being made out to be and infact very recently there's some great deals to be had. Ok, you need a clean credit history and a deposit or equity but you always needed that to get the best deals anyway. The prices have fallen quite considerably i.e land registry says 10% around London but estate agents are saying the sales that are going through are much greater reductions, that's because only the desperate are selling. There are alot of properties where the figures wouldn't previously stack up as buy to lets and now they do with a nice little profit. There are lots of other factors I know but if you're in it for the long term which practically everyone is, (your always going to need somewhere to live and most investors are looking at 10 years minimum) then I still think you're on a winner. I think if things continue to improve with regards to freeing up the mortgage system and more rate cuts prices will slowly grind to a halt. I would be happy to see the start of a recovery towards the end of next year but who knows! Affordability is getting better and better and for anyone looking to buy I would keep saving and constantly be on the lookout for a steal. Grab your dream home before it's too late, as the minute they start going up again you've missed the boat!

   Posted by Adam on 02/12/2008 01:37:23

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3. Intersting predictions.Most of the so called experts have got the property market spectacularly wrong over the past 14 months, exactly as they did at the bottom of the market and the peak of the previous boom.I have every reason to forecast they will be wrong yet again, just as the majority of Financial Advisors have little or no idea how the money markets work and accordingly give clients very poor advice.With property prices falling 40% in places like Dubai over the past 4 weeks predicting the near term is lunacey.However, my guess and suggestion is to wait until March or April and see how the cerdit markets are looking, seeing how money is flowing and therein you could well find the answer for the next 3/4 years. Happy hunting and my advice is not to be one of the sheep!

   Posted by Justy on 30/11/2008 16:53:59

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4. Could Thurso in the Highlands be the next property hotspot? House prices haven't risen since 2006 and haven't dropped in value. Property is under the national average and is quite cheap. With wave energy coming off next year and Morgan Stanley investing in the area as well it could be one of the best areas to invest in at present.

   Posted by yvonne fitzgerald on 24/11/2008 15:41:43

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5. I am a single teacher living in London. I don not want to take part in a key worker scheme as I believe that I will not see any return on my investment that way. In fact, if I had gone down this route and was now in negative equity and faced with the prospect of having to sell, I would be considerably worse off! Monitoring house prices in the decent areas of SE London (there are a few), I can see they're at a similar level to 2006 before they reached the peak. The cost of a 1-2 bed flat in a reasonable area is around £170,000. This is still around 4.5 times my salary and the mortgage repayments would be unsustainable. I feel like I'm doomed to flatshares for the rest of my life unless I find a boyfriend who can alleviate the expenses or move out of the area altogether; the former you cannot guarantee and the latter I don't want to do. Any advice on getting onto the property ladder would be apprecciated. Thanks :)

   Posted by Annie on 22/11/2008 14:13:07

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6. i am seriously looking to perchase my first house i realy cannot afford it but am saving every penny to get a good deposit for the end of the credit crunch i thaught prices would start to rise about feb 09 but i gess i was wrong good this gives me more time to save good good i need to get a cheep house before it house prices go back up im not in for a quick pound i just wont a house to live in with my family so i will continue renting but would you give me an idea of when i should start looking to perchase a house in wales? carmarthenshire? i love the show kirsty and phil please reply to my message if you can or anyone in the know thanks

   Posted by hall205 on 21/11/2008 00:33:12

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7. Q. Why are house prices in freefall? A. Because the market cannot survive without FTBs. When all these economists speculate about how much they will drop by. 40%, 50%. What they are really doing is trying to forecast WHEN FTBs will return to the market. Not until they reduce threefold. Back to 2000 prices, when this bubble began. Houses on my street are presently priced at 239,500. In 2000 they were sold for 80k!! The longer prices remain high. The longer there is for that message to reach EVERY FTB out there.

   Posted by BroadswordCallingDannyBoy on 18/11/2008 17:28:03

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8. Interesting if contradictory info in last night's programme. I don't think "volatile" is an accurate term in a market that is falling and the data produced was not supported strongly eg apparently prices in the SW had fallen by almost 8% in a year since Aug 2007 and yet Phil stated unequivocably that the market had gone down by 10& since June alone then factored in an additional drop to come up with the £130K offer. The worrying aspect is not that prices are falling but that they may take a very long time to recover - despite estate agents talking them up from next year even! - and many may be left in negative equity limbo with many many more left with the disappointment of seeing their massive equity fortunes evaporate.

   Posted by Peter Newman-Legros on 18/11/2008 13:00:09

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9. Really interesting programme tonight, and some very sensible comments with equally sensible advice. As an Estate Agent I have just one criticism, why on earth were the stated price drops to date some 10% out, was the programme recorded 3 months ago or have you simply not been contacting the correct sources for information. Please ask those who really know what is happening,ask estate agents for an honest real world opinion. Thank you.

   Posted by nick pollitt on 17/11/2008 22:40:56

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10. Until this last week all the experts have been trying to play down the magnitude of what is happening in this country.In 2009 we will see massive job cuts which in turn will lead to less money being spent on the high street,causing our now quite fragile service industry to shed more jobs, the housing market once a golden goose for all involved, will see prices drop by up to 50% and people connected with the housing industry made redundant.

    Posted by Nigel on 14/11/2008 15:06:52

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11. I predict prices will fall at least 50%, based on the maths of how a mortgage will be lent and the average wage. At least I am using some logic, as opposed to a whole raft of 'experts' who must be looking into crystal balls, and show no explanation to their conclusions. Also, I have always said 50%. A lot of 'experts' have originally denied a crash will occur, and have then slowly increased their prediction as time have gone on. That is, they are aft casting. The recovery will be L shaped. First the drop and then stagnation as always happens at the tail end of a crash. I'd like all the experts to be consulted at the end and asked why they were so much in error, and not in fact, an expert.

    Posted by Nick Pike on 12/11/2008 23:58:02

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12. House prices are related to too many factors. the location may keep its high price. the inflation may lead to reduce prices in short term but it means more expensive to build and thus higher prices in the long term. So get the chance now before it increase again! Moreover, things do not go down or up suddenly or continously. I think prices will pick up in spring 2009 and decline gain in 2010 to pik up slowly 2011 and then sharply 2013. If rent is close to the monthly morgatge: then buy. this is alwaysthe advice for the long term. I am ordinary but old man...

    Posted by Old Man on 16/10/2008 17:48:40

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13. We are in very interesting times. No one knows whats going to happen next. OK a few bright sparks predicted a bubble burst, but not this big and this global. Who ever thinks the housing market is going to rebound in the next two years or so, I must tell you to keep dreaming (No offense).There is alot of factors too consider: over inflated house prices, empty stock sitting idle, either knock it down or refurbish it, the list goes on. This mess is not over yet we're not even half way there yet. This will help us to go back to basics, saving and spending within our means, we need it. The system has to flush it self of all rotten apples before we start a fresh. The ones who saw the real £££ were on Wall Street & The City, not the every day working class citizen. We got stiffed big time. Look! we the UK depend on so much: oil, USA market etc. The US has to pick up in order for the UK economy up turn. The US will pickup alot quicker than the UK, if it has the right President. But the UK will take longer to turn around. Companies who shut down & lay off hundreds are not going to start rehiring overnight. The 700bn that Bush brain washed congress and the public with again, needs to be x10.

    Posted by Tony on 06/10/2008 19:52:46

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14. As a nation, we have an unhealthy obsession with getting on the property ladder, its is steered by peer pressure and status so much so that people are lending more than they can afford to pay back. The Champaign lifestyle on a lemonade income springs to mind here! A home is to be LIVED IN and passed down, not to be seen as an investment.

    Posted by Christopher on 29/09/2008 21:10:53

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15. 2009-2010 will be the new 1991 with repossessions. Personal debt is so large now that lowering interest rates will not change anything. House prices will never rise again as mortgage companies will never lend to SUBPRIME or NINJAS (No income No jobs) again. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis

    Posted by Simon on 23/09/2008 14:16:34

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16. People picking on and blaming the Investment Banks for this crisis is absolute rubbish. UK people borrowed amounts of money they knew they could not afford. There was a rule once of maximum 3 x your salary you were allowed to borrow and no more. This rule should not have been broken. The Investment Banks trusted the mortgage companies to lend money responsibly and not irresponsibly as they have.

    Posted by david dixon on 22/09/2008 22:18:52

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17. The biggest iissue with the property market is that it is such an emotive issue. In plain economics there is still a property shortage and that should mean that there should be demand for whatever stock is out there. However the reasons given for lack of demand, the credit crunch, concern over interest rates and size fo deposits are all generally dancing round a selection of nebulous handbags. People still need to live somewhere, what is the rental market doing? not the mortgages for the rental market but the actual rental market? Wake up people there is coffee to be smelt

    Posted by Sean McCrohan on 16/09/2008 17:27:59

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18. Does that mean I should still wait to buy?

    Posted by April on 16/09/2008 10:40:12

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19. House prices down 40% after Lehman Brothers. LIBOR has gone Nuts. Inflation is not under control. rates wont lower. I pity anyone that bought in the last 3 years I really do. If you can get a mortgage with greater than 85% LTV in 12 months time you are doing well. The credit crunch will decimate the housing market till 2012, then only growth in line with inflation. And Who said houses were a safe bet!!! 100% Correct. Guaranteed.

    Posted by Pflusk on 16/09/2008 09:06:50

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